‘Never be out of pocket’: Why buying a Tesla just got less risky

Depreciation and a steep decline in resale value are often cited by consumers as key barriers to buying electric cars.

As reported by Drive in February 2026 – which referenced data from the Australian Automotive Association (AAA) – on average, EVs depreciated by 15.5 per cent after one year of ownership, with the median retention value (how much of the car’s original price it retained) sitting at approximately 84.5 per cent.

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While this might sound alarming, the AAA data revealed that after one year of ownership, EVs actually retained more of their value than light commercial utes (72 per cent) and SUVs (67.5 per cent).

To alleviate this concern, a range of brands have introduced Guaranteed Future Value programs, with Tesla – the best-selling EV car maker in Australia – most recently joining the list.

The US electric giant launched the product on 10 July 2026 alongside its finance partner Driva, with the brand attributing the decision to better provide financial flexibility.  

“Tesla Australia are committed to making Tesla ownership more flexible for Australian customers. The Guaranteed Future Value Program represents another step in providing innovative financing solutions that meet the diverse needs of our customers,” the brand said in a media statement.

This comes as EV sales have surged by a whopping 146.9 per cent year on year, with 32,583 electric models finding new homes in June 2026. The Tesla Model Y has once again topped the monthly sales chart for a second consecutive month, with the brand accruing 8072 registrations in June 2026.

But what is Guaranteed Future Value and how does it help consumers? Here’s what you need to know.

Disclaimer: This article does not constitute financial advice and serves only as a general guide.

In a nutshell, Guaranteed Future Value (GFV) is a car loan feature in which the vehicle’s residual value is predetermined before the end of the loan term.

This means that consumers have a clearer understanding of the final one-off balloon payment at the end of the lease, and if a car’s value collapses, the manufacturer takes the risk and absorbs the cost.

Under a traditional car loan, a consumer is vulnerable to depreciation if they decide to sell the vehicle because the car’s value is determined by market value, which can fluctuate. This can leave the consumer at a financial loss, particularly if the specific model’s resale value has dropped.  

While traditional car loans often allow an optional balloon payment to lower monthly costs, the buyer assumes all risk if the vehicle's value is less than the final lump-sum payment.

For example, if the balloon payment on a car loan is $30,000 and the vehicle's market value is $20,000, the consumer must pay the $10,000 difference out of pocket.

A GFV agreement passes the resale risk to the car maker by arranging a balloon payment that matches the vehicle's agreed-upon guaranteed minimum value.

Though GFV agreements generally offer lower monthly repayments than a traditional loan, customers must adhere to specific stipulations outlined by the lender, though they do offer greater ownership flexibility.

Under a GFV, the financier calculates the minimum return value based on the car's make and model, overall condition, and the customer’s agreed-upon loan terms, such as the term length and annual mileage.

Generally speaking, a GFV could be an attractive proposition for consumers who prefer to change cars every couple of years, or drivers who want more options at the end of a loan while having lower monthly repayments.

A Tesla media release stated its finance partner Driva "will guarantee the minimum return value of the vehicle to ensure it covers the final payment. If your vehicle has been well looked after, adheres to the Fair Wear and Tear guidelines and meets the agreed kilometre usage, customers know they will never be out of pocket when trading their vehicle in to cover the final payment”.

At the end of the GVF lease agreement, consumers have three options. They can either own the vehicle outright by paying the entire agreed-upon GFV, which can be refinanced.

Consumers can also return the vehicle to the brand without any further repayments, with the GFV used to settle the loan amount.

Additionally, customers can trade in for a new car, and if the trade-in value exceeds the GFV, the difference can generally be applied toward the price of the new vehicle.

In 2026, a majority of brands, ranging from fledgling to established brands, offer Guaranteed Future Value finance programs.

New brands such as Denza – BYD’s luxury arm – offers GFV, with the Chinese luxury car maker announcing it will offer the finance program through its finance partner Angle on all its models in April 2026.

Denza Australia’s chief operating officer Mark Harland said the brand will offer an attractive GFV that will rival those of other luxury brands.

“For anyone who has any doubt about our vehicles, PHEV (plug-in hybrid) or EV in the future, we’re going to stand behind our vehicles with Guaranteed Future Value that’s going to be competitive with all the other OEMs in our segment, in the luxury segment,” Harland told Drive at the 2026 Melbourne Motor Show.

Additionally, traditional car makers such as BMW, Mazda, Toyota, Kia, Ford and Hyundai also offer GFV in Australia.